Alternative Futures and Their Implications for Army by Brian Nichiporuk, John Gordon

By Brian Nichiporuk, John Gordon

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The systems that are put into production and development in this decade will be in the Army of 2030 or later. • Long-term Army modernization strategy should accommodate the possibility of various futures in the next 20–30 years. Systems and platforms that have applicability in many different plausible futures may represent the wisest investment strategy. 48 Conclusions continued • C4ISR enhancements, medium forces, SOF, and a mix of aviation capabilities appear to be sound long-term investments.

This is a case where resources for Army aviation would remain roughly the same as today, but with an important difference. Here we saw a need to refocus Army aviation from attack capabilities to lift. Such a change would help enable low-intensity missions by Army forces. 31 Illustrative Army Structure Democratic Peace XX XX XX Interim XX m The benign environment of this future has led to an Army roughly 30% smaller than today. Army XXI heavy forces have been significantly reduced. Most of the post–Army XXI medium units are of the Interim type.

Our organizational concepts are based on numbers of divisions. We have chosen the division as our metric because it is still the foundation unit that the Army senior leadership uses in public discussions of service strength and resource management today vice the Cold War era. The division is also widely used as a reference measure by civilian defense analysts and scholars. ) but have consciously chosen to use the division as the “currency of the realm” in this document because it makes our analysis transparent to a large audience of analysts both inside and outside the Department of Defense.

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